In its update ahead of third-quarter results, Shell raised its integrated gas production estimate to 740,000-780,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from an earlier 570,000-630,000, helped by the ARC Resources acquisition; second-quarter output was 631,000. It gave an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel against $24 in the second quarter, and a chemicals margin of $208 a tonne against $270. Shell said weaker chemicals margins and higher cash outflows could weigh on the result. Results are due on October 29.
Why it matters for listed companies
A refining margin of $42 a barrel is the diesel and fuel shortage showing up in an oil major's accounts: the gap between crude and products has widened, which pays refiners and costs airlines, hauliers and other fuel buyers. The same morning Equinor said its marketing and processing profit was above its $400 million guidance on European refining margins and LNG trading. Chemicals move the other way, at $208 a tonne, which is the signal for Europe's listed chemical producers. These are guidance figures, not audited results.
Official series on 07 Oct 2026 or the last day before it, and the latest observation.
ECB deposit facility rate 2.50% → 2.50%unchanged 07 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026 · European Central Bank
Euro area 10-year yield (AAA) 3.54% → 3.51%-3 bp 07 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026 · European Central Bank
Euro in US dollars 1.1177 → 1.1208+0.0031 07 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026 · ECB reference rate
Euro in pounds sterling 0.8465 → 0.8461-0.0004 07 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026 · ECB reference rate
These figures are measured, not attributed. Prices and rates move for many reasons at once; they show
what happened after this story, not that the story caused it. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
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