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Europe · Business news · Commodities · 02 Oct 2026

Eurofer cuts its 2026 EU steel demand forecast to growth of 0.1% from 0.4%, with car output seen down 0.9%

EU Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary

What happened

The European Steel Association (Eurofer) now forecasts apparent steel consumption in the EU of 135 million tonnes in 2026, up 0.1% on the year, against 0.4% in its June review; for 2027 it sees growth of 2.3% to 138 million tonnes. Consumption rose 1.5% to 34.4 million tonnes in the first quarter. Output in steel-using sectors is forecast to grow 1.5% in 2026 after two years of decline, led by construction and engineering, while the automotive sector is seen contracting a further 0.9%. EU steel production fell 2.9% last year to a record low of 125.8 million tonnes, and EU steel exports to third countries fell 20% in the first half.

Why it matters for listed companies

The forecast describes the home market of ArcelorMittal, Thyssenkrupp, Salzgitter, Voestalpine, SSAB and Outokumpu, whose volumes depend on European construction, machinery and car production. Near-flat demand at a time of high power and carbon costs leaves prices and plant utilisation as the variables for their margins, with the EU's import quota regime limiting foreign supply. The split matters for customers too: the association's numbers show construction and engineering recovering while car output keeps shrinking, which fits the weaker volumes carmakers have reported.

Reported by GMK Center — “EUROFER has lowered its forecast for steel consumption in the EU for 2026” ↗ on 02 Oct 2026.

Rates and currencies since this was reported

Official series on 02 Oct 2026 or the last day before it, and the latest observation.

ECB deposit facility rate
2.50% → 2.50% unchanged
02 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026 · European Central Bank
Euro area 10-year yield (AAA)
3.46% → 3.51% +5 bp
02 Oct 2026 → 14 Oct 2026 · European Central Bank
Euro in US dollars
1.1225 → 1.1208 -0.0017
02 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026 · ECB reference rate
Euro in pounds sterling
0.8503 → 0.8461 -0.0042
02 Oct 2026 → 15 Oct 2026 · ECB reference rate
These figures are measured, not attributed. Prices and rates move for many reasons at once; they show what happened after this story, not that the story caused it. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.

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