The India Meteorological Department lowered its June-September monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average (plus or minus 4%), from 92% in April, as El Nino conditions develop. June rainfall is seen below normal at 92% of LPA, and the monsoon core zone, home to much rain-fed farming, at under 94%. Monsoon onset, earlier predicted for May 26, is now seen around June 1. Below-normal rain in the central and western core zone could hurt output of pulses, oilseeds and sugarcane.
Why it matters for listed companies
Monsoon rain still drives farm incomes and rural spending, so a forecast at the deficient threshold is a direct risk for rural-heavy FMCG companies, tractor and two-wheeler makers, and fertiliser and agrochemical firms. Weaker pulses, oilseed and sugarcane harvests would add to food inflation and limit the RBI's room to ease, while sugar mills and edible-oil processors face supply and price swings. Hotter, drier conditions also lift power demand.
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